Climate change and more disturbed land-use types will further the invasion of a non-native annual grass, Ventenata dubia

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Identification of suitable habitat for invasive weeds and their projected infestation extent across different land use cover types under a changing climate is crucial the broad management goals prevention, detection, rapid response. In this study, we adopted an ensemble approach species distribution models to project potential annual grass, Ventenata dubia , within Gallatin County along its road corridors, in Montana, USA, current future climates. The model prediction V. was excellent with AUC value > 0.90. predictors most influence on V . occurrence were precipitation, evapo-transpiration, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation growing season months. Under climate, 243 1,371 km 2 coverage corridors entire County, respectively. greatest (239% RCP4.5 302% RCP8.5) compared that (127% 241% RCP8.5). Among types, expansion agriculture 425% 484%, grasslands 278% 442% RCP8.5 Our modelling suggests will facilitate spread establishment non-native disturbed habitats. We conclude short history invasion expanding at alarming rate requires greater investment detection monitoring prevent further expansion.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Biological Invasions

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1387-3547', '1573-1464']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-022-02913-4